为什么我在多个模型中都获得了很好的准确性,但ROC AUC却很低?

时间:2019-12-18 18:22:39

标签: r model logistic-regression auc

我的数据集大小为42542 x 14,我正在尝试构建不同的模型,例如逻辑回归,KNN,RF,决策树,并比较精度。

对于每种型号,我得到的都是高精度但ROC AUC较低。

数据包含约85%的目标变量= 1的样本和15%的目标变量0的样本。我尝试采集样本以处理这种不平衡现象,但仍然得出相同的结果。

glm的系数如下:

glm(formula = loan_status ~ ., family = "binomial", data = lc_train)

Deviance Residuals: 
    Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
-2.7617   0.3131   0.4664   0.6129   1.6734  

Coefficients:
                                     Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)                        -8.264e+00  8.338e-01  -9.911  < 2e-16 ***
annual_inc                          5.518e-01  3.748e-02  14.721  < 2e-16 ***
home_own                            4.938e-02  3.740e-02   1.320 0.186780    
inq_last_6mths1                    -2.094e-01  4.241e-02  -4.938 7.88e-07 ***
inq_last_6mths2-5                  -3.805e-01  4.187e-02  -9.087  < 2e-16 ***
inq_last_6mths6-10                 -9.993e-01  1.065e-01  -9.380  < 2e-16 ***
inq_last_6mths11-15                -1.448e+00  3.510e-01  -4.126 3.68e-05 ***
inq_last_6mths16-20                -2.323e+00  7.946e-01  -2.924 0.003457 ** 
inq_last_6mths21-25                -1.399e+01  1.970e+02  -0.071 0.943394    
inq_last_6mths26-30                 1.039e+01  1.384e+02   0.075 0.940161    
inq_last_6mths31-35                -1.973e+00  1.230e+00  -1.604 0.108767    
loan_amnt                          -1.838e-05  3.242e-06  -5.669 1.43e-08 ***
purposecredit_card                  3.286e-02  1.130e-01   0.291 0.771169    
purposedebt_consolidation          -1.406e-01  1.032e-01  -1.362 0.173108    
purposeeducational                 -3.591e-01  1.819e-01  -1.974 0.048350 *  
purposehome_improvement            -2.106e-01  1.189e-01  -1.771 0.076577 .  
purposehouse                       -3.327e-01  1.917e-01  -1.735 0.082718 .  
purposemajor_purchase              -7.310e-03  1.288e-01  -0.057 0.954732    
purposemedical                     -4.955e-01  1.530e-01  -3.238 0.001203 ** 
purposemoving                      -4.352e-01  1.636e-01  -2.661 0.007800 ** 
purposeother                       -3.858e-01  1.105e-01  -3.493 0.000478 ***
purposerenewable_energy            -8.150e-01  3.036e-01  -2.685 0.007263 ** 
purposesmall_business              -9.715e-01  1.186e-01  -8.191 2.60e-16 ***
purposevacation                    -4.169e-01  2.012e-01  -2.072 0.038294 *  
purposewedding                      3.909e-02  1.557e-01   0.251 0.801751    
open_acc                           -1.408e-04  4.147e-03  -0.034 0.972923    
gradeB                             -4.377e-01  6.991e-02  -6.261 3.83e-10 ***
gradeC                             -5.858e-01  8.340e-02  -7.024 2.15e-12 ***
gradeD                             -7.636e-01  9.558e-02  -7.990 1.35e-15 ***
gradeE                             -7.832e-01  1.115e-01  -7.026 2.13e-12 ***
gradeF                             -9.730e-01  1.325e-01  -7.341 2.11e-13 ***
gradeG                             -1.031e+00  1.632e-01  -6.318 2.65e-10 ***
verification_statusSource Verified  6.340e-02  4.435e-02   1.429 0.152898    
verification_statusVerified         6.864e-02  4.400e-02   1.560 0.118739    
dti                                -4.683e-03  2.791e-03  -1.678 0.093373 .  
fico_range_low                      6.705e-03  9.292e-04   7.216 5.34e-13 ***
term                                5.773e-01  4.499e-02  12.833  < 2e-16 ***
emp_length2-4 years                 6.341e-02  4.911e-02   1.291 0.196664    
emp_length5-9 years                -3.136e-02  5.135e-02  -0.611 0.541355    
emp_length10+ years                -2.538e-01  5.185e-02  -4.895 9.82e-07 ***
delinq_2yrs2+                       5.919e-02  9.701e-02   0.610 0.541754    
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 25339  on 29779  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 23265  on 29739  degrees of freedom
AIC: 23347

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 10

LR的混淆矩阵如下:

Confusion Matrix and Statistics

          Reference
Prediction     0     1
         0    32    40
         1  1902 10788

               Accuracy : 0.8478         
                 95% CI : (0.8415, 0.854)
    No Information Rate : 0.8485         
    P-Value [Acc > NIR] : 0.5842         

                  Kappa : 0.0213         

 Mcnemar's Test P-Value : <2e-16         

            Sensitivity : 0.016546       
            Specificity : 0.996306       
         Pos Pred Value : 0.444444       
         Neg Pred Value : 0.850118       
             Prevalence : 0.151544       
         Detection Rate : 0.002507       
   Detection Prevalence : 0.005642       
      Balanced Accuracy : 0.506426       

       'Positive' Class : 0    

有什么方法可以改善AUC?

1 个答案:

答案 0 :(得分:0)

如果有人提出混淆矩阵并谈论低ROC AUC,则通常意味着他/她已将预测/概率转换为0和1,而ROC AUC公式则不需要-它适用于原始概率,这给出了好得多的结果。如果要获得最佳的AUC值,最好在训练时将其设置为评估指标,这样可以获得比其他指标更好的结果。