鉴于我有一个可以表达为的模型：
y = a + b*st + c*d2
其中st是某些数据的平滑版本，a，b和c是未知的模型coffieicients。应使用迭代过程来查找a，b和c的最佳值以及附加值alpha，如下所示。
在这里，我展示了一个使用我拥有的数据的例子。我只会在这里展示一小部分数据，以了解我拥有的内容：
17.1003710350253 16.7250000000000 681.521316544969
17.0325989276234 18.0540000000000 676.656460644882
17.0113862864815 16.2460000000000 671.738125420192
16.8744356336601 15.1580000000000 666.767363772145
16.5537077980594 12.8830000000000 661.739644621949
16.0646524243248 10.4710000000000 656.656219934146
15.5904357723302 9.35000000000000 651.523986525985
15.2894427136087 12.4580000000000 646.344231349275
15.1181450512182 9.68700000000000 641.118300709434
15.0074128442766 10.4080000000000 635.847600747838
14.9330905954828 11.5330000000000 630.533597865332
14.8201069920058 10.6830000000000 625.177819082427
16.3126863409751 15.9610000000000 619.781852331734
16.2700386755872 16.3580000000000 614.347346678083
15.8072873786912 10.8300000000000 608.876012461843
15.3788908036751 7.55000000000000 603.369621360944
15.0694302370038 13.1960000000000 597.830006367160
14.6313314652840 8.36200000000000 592.259061672302
14.2479738025295 9.03000000000000 586.658742460043
13.8147156115234 5.29100000000000 581.031064599264
13.5384821473624 7.22100000000000 575.378104234926
13.3603543306796 8.22900000000000 569.701997272687
13.2469020140965 9.07300000000000 564.004938753678
13.2064193251406 12.0920000000000 558.289182116093
13.1513460035983 12.2040000000000 552.557038340513
12.8747853506079 4.46200000000000 546.810874976187
12.5948999131388 4.61200000000000 541.053115045791
12.3969691298003 6.83300000000000 535.286235826545
12.1145822760120 2.43800000000000 529.512767505944
11.9541188991626 2.46700000000000 523.735291710730
11.7457790927936 4.15000000000000 517.956439908176
11.5202981254529 4.47000000000000 512.178891679167
11.2824263926694 2.62100000000000 506.405372863054
11.0981930749608 2.50000000000000 500.638653574697
10.8686514170776 1.66300000000000 494.881546094641
10.7122053911554 1.68800000000000 489.136902633882
10.6255883267131 2.48800000000000 483.407612975178
10.4979083986908 4.65800000000000 477.696601993434
10.3598092538338 4.81700000000000 472.006827058220
10.1929490084608 2.46700000000000 466.341275322034
10.1367069580204 2.36700000000000 460.702960898512
10.0194072271384 4.87800000000000 455.094921935306
9.88627023967911 3.53700000000000 449.520217586971
9.69091601129389 0.417000000000000 443.981924893704
9.48684595125235 -0.567000000000000 438.483135572389
9.30742664359900 0.892000000000000 433.026952726910
9.18283037670750 1.50000000000000 427.616487485241
9.02385722622626 1.75800000000000 422.254855571341
8.90355705229410 2.46700000000000 416.945173820367
8.76138912769045 1.99200000000000 411.690556646207
8.61299614111510 0.463000000000000 406.494112470755
8.56293606861698 6.55000000000000 401.358940124780
8.47831879772002 4.65000000000000 396.288125230599
8.42736865902327 6.45000000000000 391.284736577104
8.26325535934842 -1.37900000000000 386.351822497948
8.14547793724500 1.37900000000000 381.492407263967
8.00075641792910 -1.03700000000000 376.709487501030
7.83932517791044 -1.66700000000000 372.006028644665
7.68389447250257 -4.12900000000000 367.384961442799
7.63402151555169 -2.57900000000000 362.849178517935
随后的结果可能没有意义，因为需要完整的数据（但这只是一个例子）。使用这些数据我试图通过
迭代地解决 y = d(:,1);
d1 = d(:,2);
d2 = d(:,3);
alpha_o = linspace(0.01,1,10);
a = linspace(0.01,1,10);
b = linspace(0.01,1,10);
c = linspace(0.01,1,10);
定义a，b和c的不同值以及模型中使用的另一个术语alpha，现在我将找到这些参数的所有可能组合，并查看哪种组合最适合数据：
% every possible combination of values
xx = combvec(alpha_o,a,b,c);
% loop through each possible combination of values
for j = 1:size(xx,2);
alpha_o = xx(1,j);
a_o = xx(2,j);
b_o = xx(3,j);
c_o = xx(4,j);
st = d1(1);
for i = 2:length(d1);
st(i) = alpha_o.*d1(i) + (1-alpha_o).*st(i-1);
end
st = st(:);
y_pred = a_o + (b_o*st) + (c_o*d2);
mae(j) = nanmean(abs(y - y_pred));
end
然后我可以使用这些最佳值重新运行模型：
[id1,id2] = min(mae);
alpha_opt = xx(:,id2);
st = d1(1);
for i = 2:length(d1);
st(i) = alpha_opt(1).*d1(i) + (1-alpha_opt(1)).*st(i-1);
end
st = st(:);
y_pred = alpha_opt(2) + (alpha_opt(3)*st) + (alpha_opt(4)*d2);
mae_final = nanmean(abs(y - y_pred));
然而，为了达到最终答案，我需要将每个变量的初始猜测数增加到10以上。这将需要很长时间才能运行。因此，我想知道我在这里尝试做的是否有更好的方法？任何建议表示赞赏。
答案 0 :(得分：0)
这里有一些想法：如果你可以减少每个for循环中的计算量，你可以加速它。一种可能的方法是在每个循环之间寻找公共因子并将其移到循环外：
如果你看一下迭代，你就会看到
st（1）= d1（1）
st（2）= a * d1（2）+（1- a ）* st（1）= a * d1 （2）+（1- a ）* d1（1）
st（3）= a * d1（3）+（1- a ）* st（2）= a * d1 （3）+ a *（1- a ）* d1（2）+（1- a ）^ 2 * d1（1）
st（n）= a * d1（n）+ a *（1- a ）* d1（n-1） + a *（1- a ）^ 2 * d1（n-2）+ ... +（1- a ）^（ N-1）* D1（1）
这意味着st可以通过将这两个矩阵相乘来计算（这里我使用n = 4来说明概念）并沿第一维求和：
temp1 = [ 0 0 0 a ;
0 0 a a(1-a) ;
0 a a(1-a) a(1-a)^2 ;
1 (1-a) (1-a)^2 (1-a)^3 ;]
temp2 = [ 0 0 0 d1(4) ;
0 0 d1(3) d1(3) ;
0 d1(2) d1(2) d1(2) ;
d1(1) d1(1) d1(1) d1(1) ;]
st = sum(temp1.*temp2,1)
这里使用了这个概念的代码：计算已经移出内部for循环，只剩下赋值。
alpha_o = linspace(0.01,1,10);
xx = nchoosek(alpha_o, 4);
n = size(d1,1);
matrix_d1 = zeros(n, n);
d2 = d2'; % To make the dimension of d2 and st the same.
for ii = 1:n
matrix_d1(n-ii+1:n, ii) = d1(1:ii);
end
st = zeros(size(d1)'); % Pre-allocation of matrix will improve speed.
mae = zeros(1,size(xx,1));
matrix_alpha = zeros(n, n);
for j = 1 : size(xx,1)
alpha_o = xx(j,1);
temp = (power(1-alpha_o, [0:n-1])*alpha_o)';
matrix_alpha(n,:) = power(1-alpha_o, [0:n-1]);
for ii = 2:n
matrix_alpha(n-ii+1:n-1, ii) = temp(1:ii-1);
end
st = sum(matrix_d1.*matrix_alpha, 1);
y_pred = xx(j,2) + xx(j,3)*st + xx(j,4)*d2;
mae(j) = nanmean(abs(y - y_pred));
end
然后：
idx = find(min(mae));
alpha_opt = xx(idx,:);
st = zeros(size(d1)');
temp = (power(1-alpha_opt(1), [0:n-1])*alpha_opt(1))';
matrix_alpha = zeros(n, n);
matrix_alpha(n,:) = power(1-alpha_opt(1), [0:n-1]);;
for ii = 2:n
matrix_alpha(n-ii+1:n-1, ii) = temp(1:ii-1);
end
st = sum(matrix_d1.*matrix_alpha, 1);
y_pred = alpha_opt(2) + (alpha_opt(3)*st) + (alpha_opt(4)*d2);
mae_final = nanmean(abs(y - y_pred));
如果这有帮助，请告诉我！