Question

我是R forecast（）软件包的新手，想知道我是否正确解释了forecast.ets的结果。基本上我对未来期间的预测并没有改变，我担心我错误地使用了包裹。

这是我的RStudio窗口的复制粘贴。注意：LastRowForTrainingData == 270和working_dataset $ metric_actual [270] == 99.36789）

> fit <- ets(working_dataset$metric_actual[1:LastRowForTrainingData])
> fit
ETS(A,N,N) 

Call:
ets(y = working_dataset$metric_actual[1:LastRowForTrainingData]) 

Smoothing parameters:
 alpha = 0.128 

Initial states:
 l = 99.4496 

sigma:  0.3845

  AIC      AICc       BIC 
 999.3806  999.4256 1006.5775 
> forecast(fit,h=10)

Point Forecast    Lo 80    Hi 80    Lo 95    Hi 95
271       99.72152 99.22882 100.2142 98.96799 100.4751
272       99.72152 99.22479 100.2183 98.96184 100.4812
273       99.72152 99.22080 100.2222 98.95574 100.4873
274       99.72152 99.21685 100.2262 98.94969 100.4934
275       99.72152 99.21292 100.2301 98.94368 100.4994
276       99.72152 99.20902 100.2340 98.93772 100.5053
277       99.72152 99.20515 100.2379 98.93180 100.5112
278       99.72152 99.20131 100.2417 98.92593 100.5171
279       99.72152 99.19750 100.2455 98.92010 100.5229
280       99.72152 99.19372 100.2493 98.91431 100.5287

提前感谢您的帮助/确认我没有搞砸了！：）

R预测未来期间的预测没有变化

0 个答案: