使用预测值进行LSTM预测

时间:2018-11-25 18:36:59

标签: python tensorflow keras deep-learning lstm

我正在通过Coursera学习深度学习,并且还在jason的这个令人惊叹的博客中关注以下示例:

https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting-long-short-term-memory-network-python/

下面有一个很好的示例,说明了如何使用LSTM进行单步预测。该算法使用当前值预测下一个值,并使用实际期望值更新模型以预测下一个值。但是,如果没有可用的测试/未来数据,如何更改代码以预测下一个值?也就是说,我应该使用预测值作为模型的输入来预测下一个值,依此类推。

from pandas import DataFrame
from pandas import Series
from pandas import concat
from pandas import read_csv
from pandas import datetime
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from keras.models import Sequential
from keras.layers import Dense
from keras.layers import LSTM
from math import sqrt
from matplotlib import pyplot
import numpy

# date-time parsing function for loading the dataset
def parser(x):
    return datetime.strptime('190'+x, '%Y-%m')

# frame a sequence as a supervised learning problem
def timeseries_to_supervised(data, lag=1):
    df = DataFrame(data)
    columns = [df.shift(i) for i in range(1, lag+1)]
    columns.append(df)
    df = concat(columns, axis=1)
    df.fillna(0, inplace=True)
    return df

# create a differenced series
def difference(dataset, interval=1):
    diff = list()
    for i in range(interval, len(dataset)):
        value = dataset[i] - dataset[i - interval]
        diff.append(value)
    return Series(diff)

# invert differenced value
def inverse_difference(history, yhat, interval=1):
    return yhat + history[-interval]

# scale train and test data to [-1, 1]
def scale(train, test):
    # fit scaler
    scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range=(-1, 1))
    scaler = scaler.fit(train)
    # transform train
    train = train.reshape(train.shape[0], train.shape[1])
    train_scaled = scaler.transform(train)
    # transform test
    test = test.reshape(test.shape[0], test.shape[1])
    test_scaled = scaler.transform(test)
    return scaler, train_scaled, test_scaled

# inverse scaling for a forecasted value
def invert_scale(scaler, X, value):
    new_row = [x for x in X] + [value]
    array = numpy.array(new_row)
    array = array.reshape(1, len(array))
    inverted = scaler.inverse_transform(array)
    return inverted[0, -1]

# fit an LSTM network to training data
def fit_lstm(train, batch_size, nb_epoch, neurons):
    X, y = train[:, 0:-1], train[:, -1]
    X = X.reshape(X.shape[0], 1, X.shape[1])
    model = Sequential()
    model.add(LSTM(neurons, batch_input_shape=(batch_size, X.shape[1], X.shape[2]), stateful=True))
    model.add(Dense(1))
    model.compile(loss='mean_squared_error', optimizer='adam')
    for i in range(nb_epoch):
        model.fit(X, y, epochs=1, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=0, shuffle=False)
        model.reset_states()
    return model

# make a one-step forecast
def forecast_lstm(model, batch_size, X):
    X = X.reshape(1, 1, len(X))
    yhat = model.predict(X, batch_size=batch_size)
    return yhat[0,0]

# load dataset
series = read_csv('shampoo-sales.csv', header=0, parse_dates=[0], index_col=0, squeeze=True, date_parser=parser)

# transform data to be stationary
raw_values = series.values
diff_values = difference(raw_values, 1)

# transform data to be supervised learning
supervised = timeseries_to_supervised(diff_values, 1)
supervised_values = supervised.values

# split data into train and test-sets
train, test = supervised_values[0:-12], supervised_values[-12:]

# transform the scale of the data
scaler, train_scaled, test_scaled = scale(train, test)

# fit the model
lstm_model = fit_lstm(train_scaled, 1, 3000, 4)
# forecast the entire training dataset to build up state for forecasting
train_reshaped = train_scaled[:, 0].reshape(len(train_scaled), 1, 1)
lstm_model.predict(train_reshaped, batch_size=1)

# walk-forward validation on the test data
predictions = list()
for i in range(len(test_scaled)):
    # make one-step forecast
    X, y = test_scaled[i, 0:-1], test_scaled[i, -1]
    yhat = forecast_lstm(lstm_model, 1, X)
    # invert scaling
    yhat = invert_scale(scaler, X, yhat)
    # invert differencing
    yhat = inverse_difference(raw_values, yhat, len(test_scaled)+1-i)
    # store forecast
    predictions.append(yhat)
    expected = raw_values[len(train) + i + 1]
    print('Month=%d, Predicted=%f, Expected=%f' % (i+1, yhat, expected))

# report performance
rmse = sqrt(mean_squared_error(raw_values[-12:], predictions))
print('Test RMSE: %.3f' % rmse)
# line plot of observed vs predicted
pyplot.plot(raw_values[-12:])
pyplot.plot(predictions)
pyplot.show()

0 个答案:

没有答案