“ARIMA Forecasting in R”中的“非缺失观察结果太少”

时间:2016-09-27 12:50:08

标签: r forecasting

由于“非遗漏观察次数太少”错误导致R中的ARIMA预测脚本出现问题,并且希望在自己对其进行故障排除失败后寻求一些帮助。

我的确切脚本非常简单,如下所示:

library(forecast) 
SalesData <- aggregate(Revenue~SalesCategory+Month, data = dataset, FUN = sum)
SalesForecast <- ts(SalesData$Revenue, start = 0, freq = 12)    
fit <- arima(log(SalesForecast), c(1, 1, 0),
             seasonal = list(order = c(1, 1, 0),     
             period = 12))
pred <- predict(fit, n.ahead = 12)    
Adjusted.pred <- (2.718^pred$pred)   
ts.plot(SalesForecast,Adjusted.pred, log = "y", ylab= "Revenue", 
     lty = c(1,3),main = "Forecasted Revenue", xlab ="Fiscal Year Months")

值得注意的是,我的销售数据是季节性的,从2013年7月到2016年8月延伸。在此期间,某些产品已被弃用或新增。在重新确定优先级之前,还有一些产品被弃用了几个月,我认为这可能是问题的根本原因。

感谢关于可能是一个非常基本的问题的任何和所有帮助或指导。

最佳, 杰克

Month   Revenue SalesCategory
6/1/2014    872.446483  Orange
7/1/2014    27415.60511 Orange
8/1/2014    74292.08374 Orange
9/1/2014    120817.748  Orange
10/1/2014   163667.9254 Orange
11/1/2014   361728.9997 Orange
12/1/2014   287626.8962 Orange
1/1/2015    256132.8191 Orange
2/1/2015    281025.9382 Orange
3/1/2015    622223.3008 Orange
4/1/2015    354815.5095 Orange
5/1/2015    265576.7564 Orange
6/1/2015    360826.4308 Orange
7/1/2013    588025.0006 Blue
8/1/2013    652617.4266 Blue
9/1/2013    650277.7455 Blue
10/1/2013   724311.5886 Blue
11/1/2013   674752.8929 Blue
12/1/2013   871649.6068 Blue
1/1/2014    422410.6554 Blue
2/1/2014    414430.5516 Blue
3/1/2014    399161.6918 Blue
4/1/2014    370860.6502 Blue
5/1/2014    541905.025  Blue
6/1/2014    516731.6737 Blue
7/1/2014    385695.9653 Blue
8/1/2014    449845.4301 Blue
9/1/2014    293212.8969 Blue
10/1/2014   196985.2955 Blue
11/1/2014   230369.0426 Blue
12/1/2014   375275.1204 Blue
1/1/2015    128554.7657 Blue
2/1/2015    136430.5672 Blue
3/1/2015    136033.0716 Blue
4/1/2015    125635.0309 Blue
5/1/2015    152383.778  Blue
6/1/2015    11891.35223 Blue
7/1/2015    10.78232    Blue
8/1/2015    8.600054    Blue
9/1/2015    6.125262    Blue
10/1/2015   3.688184    Blue
11/1/2015   2.378511    Blue
12/1/2015   0.8949777   Blue
1/1/2016    0.1565892   Blue
2/1/2016    0.1817317   Blue
3/1/2016    0.07015 Blue
4/1/2016    0.0327  Blue
5/1/2016    496.01171   Blue
6/1/2016    0   Blue
7/1/2016    0   Blue
8/1/2016    0   Blue
10/1/2014   22559.14026 Black
11/1/2014   113413.3118 Black
12/1/2014   355487.1326 Black
1/1/2015    475413.4705 Black
2/1/2015    541123.0262 Black
3/1/2015    658523.3192 Black
4/1/2015    539569.5451 Black
5/1/2015    537714.0264 Black
6/1/2015    540749.4187 Black
7/1/2015    0   Black
2/1/2014    1045.282484 Gray
3/1/2014    0.01048 Gray
4/1/2014    0   Gray
5/1/2014    0   Gray
12/1/2015   0.4567944   Gray
1/1/2016    67.2964458  Gray
2/1/2016    65.2405035  Gray
3/1/2016    38.7794443  Gray
7/1/2013    103454.2354 White
8/1/2013    171370.7464 White
9/1/2013    283079.2564 White
10/1/2013   424687.7054 White
11/1/2013   612376.0585 White
12/1/2013   945304.5281 White
1/1/2014    341919.2179 White
2/1/2014    478848.2671 White
3/1/2014    774880.0632 White
4/1/2014    686531.079  White
5/1/2014    572505.1634 White
6/1/2014    663797.2645 White
7/1/2014    430098.5142 White
8/1/2014    346898.352  White
9/1/2014    353184.9587 White
10/1/2014   161663.4499 White
11/1/2014   216238.9023 White
12/1/2014   357995.1503 White
1/1/2015    167716.8869 White
2/1/2015    99321.08561 White
3/1/2015    90474.87056 White
4/1/2015    54755.43886 White
5/1/2015    44959.11504 White
6/1/2015    60601.33456 White
7/1/2015    28816.2135  White
8/1/2015    23525.2123  White
9/1/2015    22023.87244 White
10/1/2015   500.628171  White
11/1/2015   11.740983   White
12/1/2015   1.4085756   White
1/1/2016    0.1890511   White
2/1/2016    0.073819    White
3/1/2016    0.1150476   White
4/1/2016    0.0050657   White
5/1/2016    0   White
6/1/2016    0   White
7/1/2016    0   White
8/1/2016    0   White
7/1/2013    485.4243975 Red
8/1/2013    3.39293577  Red
9/1/2013    5.42042393  Red
10/1/2013   8.174868    Red
11/1/2013   8.86948286  Red
12/1/2013   7.27585039  Red
1/1/2014    153.964892  Red
2/1/2014    62.817221   Red
3/1/2014    229.942113  Red
4/1/2014    66.312332   Red
5/1/2014    107.612302  Red
6/1/2014    449.725595  Red
7/1/2014    1652.623186 Red
8/1/2014    2635.510635 Red
9/1/2014    876.361173  Red
10/1/2014   836.938981  Red
11/1/2014   1843.838808 Red
12/1/2014   1918.480787 Red
1/1/2015    0.002048    Red
2/1/2015    0.001432    Red
3/1/2015    0.001059    Red
4/1/2015    0.001613    Red
5/1/2015    0.00135 Red
8/1/2015    0.001   Red
2/1/2016    0.0018374   Red
9/1/2014    0.002087    Yellow
10/1/2014   0   Yellow
11/1/2014   0   Yellow
12/1/2014   0   Yellow
1/1/2015    0   Yellow
2/1/2015    0   Yellow
3/1/2015    242.63139   Yellow
4/1/2015    393.517539  Yellow
5/1/2015    551.942596  Yellow
6/1/2015    544.338007  Yellow
7/1/2015    0   Yellow
8/1/2015    0   Yellow
9/1/2015    0   Yellow
10/1/2015   0   Yellow
11/1/2015   0   Yellow
12/1/2015   232.3945437 Yellow
1/1/2016    187.0862765 Yellow
2/1/2016    0   Yellow
3/1/2016    0   Yellow
4/1/2016    0   Yellow
5/1/2016    0   Yellow
6/1/2016    0   Yellow
7/1/2016    0   Yellow
8/1/2016    0   Yellow
7/1/2013    6.57399404  Teal
8/1/2013    4.94998805  Teal
9/1/2013    9.00774152  Teal
10/1/2013   9.49746566  Teal
11/1/2013   11.31726121 Teal
12/1/2013   9.68909605  Teal
1/1/2014    4.378742    Teal
2/1/2014    4.268959    Teal
3/1/2014    7.889073    Teal
4/1/2014    1.642041    Teal
7/1/2013    0.07857562  Green
8/1/2013    0.02407967  Green
9/1/2013    0.07290788  Green
10/1/2013   0.08540275  Green
11/1/2013   0.05424165  Green
12/1/2013   0.03448481  Green
1/1/2014    0.019639    Green
2/1/2014    0.027405    Green
3/1/2014    0.056806    Green
4/1/2014    0.031718    Green
5/1/2014    0.01583 Green
9/1/2014    6.092477    Maroon
10/1/2014   2.125143    Maroon
11/1/2014   20.971927   Maroon
12/1/2014   5.884376    Maroon
1/1/2015    3.470562    Maroon
2/1/2015    585.412606  Maroon
3/1/2015    22686.97242 Maroon
4/1/2015    97067.40143 Maroon
5/1/2015    121869.2472 Maroon
6/1/2015    135214.5345 Maroon
7/1/2015    89336.47872 Maroon
8/1/2015    92444.65462 Maroon
9/1/2015    132310.2372 Maroon
10/1/2015   115558.5213 Maroon
11/1/2015   162780.6291 Maroon
12/1/2015   163722.6052 Maroon
1/1/2016    104097.89   Maroon
2/1/2016    80201.75931 Maroon
3/1/2016    103797.0382 Maroon
4/1/2016    81507.72535 Maroon
5/1/2016    107493.1832 Maroon
6/1/2016    115225.8871 Maroon
7/1/2016    100779.4421 Maroon
8/1/2016    161750.5709 Maroon
7/1/2013    942744.6418 Burnt Orange
8/1/2013    1008340.789 Burnt Orange
9/1/2013    889803.7261 Burnt Orange
10/1/2013   656217.2015 Burnt Orange
11/1/2013   952755.3652 Burnt Orange
12/1/2013   375981.9599 Burnt Orange
1/1/2014    1209321.384 Burnt Orange
2/1/2014    614167.0686 Burnt Orange
3/1/2014    732154.595  Burnt Orange
4/1/2014    1147855.821 Burnt Orange
5/1/2014    1279385.815 Burnt Orange
6/1/2014    1131145.804 Burnt Orange
7/1/2014    1609763.532 Burnt Orange
8/1/2014    1700764.693 Burnt Orange
9/1/2014    1474718.508 Burnt Orange
10/1/2014   1242259.623 Burnt Orange
11/1/2014   1458237.902 Burnt Orange
12/1/2014   1659004.632 Burnt Orange
1/1/2015    3653607.043 Burnt Orange
2/1/2015    2868265.459 Burnt Orange
3/1/2015    3745311.011 Burnt Orange
4/1/2015    4083569.698 Burnt Orange
5/1/2015    3538107.069 Burnt Orange
6/1/2015    5663504.216 Burnt Orange
7/1/2015    5930931.827 Burnt Orange
8/1/2015    6106445.836 Burnt Orange
9/1/2015    7059156.619 Burnt Orange
10/1/2015   9506117.045 Burnt Orange
11/1/2015   7705094.509 Burnt Orange
12/1/2015   9461014.627 Burnt Orange
1/1/2016    9139009.685 Burnt Orange
2/1/2016    6679580.978 Burnt Orange
3/1/2016    8733237.033 Burnt Orange
4/1/2016    7139955.952 Burnt Orange
5/1/2016    8094093.819 Burnt Orange
6/1/2016    9255422.036 Burnt Orange
7/1/2016    9234943.809 Burnt Orange
8/1/2016    9025449.124 Burnt Orange
7/1/2013    0.00091391  Eggshell
9/1/2013    7.69E-05    Eggshell
10/1/2013   0.0003914   Eggshell
11/1/2013   0.00106852  Eggshell
5/1/2014    0.00027 Eggshell
10/1/2014   9600.611335 Eggshell
11/1/2014   39213.39315 Eggshell
12/1/2014   49611.47325 Eggshell
1/1/2015    39488.54573 Eggshell
2/1/2015    40038.75978 Eggshell
3/1/2015    57500.30278 Eggshell
4/1/2015    58967.08286 Eggshell
5/1/2015    119418.2945 Eggshell
6/1/2015    197875.903  Eggshell
7/1/2015    208291.0205 Eggshell
8/1/2015    199556.3633 Eggshell
9/1/2015    181935.77   Eggshell
10/1/2015   187274.8072 Eggshell
11/1/2015   265091.7069 Eggshell
12/1/2015   235995.82   Eggshell
1/1/2016    162704.3921 Eggshell
2/1/2016    145915.697  Eggshell
3/1/2016    207327.3106 Eggshell
4/1/2016    142476.5606 Eggshell
5/1/2016    185868.0071 Eggshell
6/1/2016    225289.5468 Eggshell
7/1/2016    244246.1984 Eggshell
8/1/2016    244572.2056 Eggshell
7/1/2013    2301622.029 Navy
8/1/2013    2146835.127 Navy
9/1/2013    2038147.979 Navy
10/1/2013   2602763.799 Navy
11/1/2013   2120077.201 Navy
12/1/2013   2100953.325 Navy
1/1/2014    1999920.1   Navy
2/1/2014    1703563.642 Navy
3/1/2014    1669073.378 Navy
4/1/2014    2305637.784 Navy
5/1/2014    2634698.51  Navy
6/1/2014    1687723.38  Navy
7/1/2014    2084579.625 Navy
8/1/2014    2350005.581 Navy
9/1/2014    1573464.772 Navy
10/1/2014   1951579.145 Navy
11/1/2014   3237249.833 Navy
12/1/2014   4171508.264 Navy
1/1/2015    4393928.246 Navy
2/1/2015    5027010.258 Navy
3/1/2015    7353014.705 Navy
4/1/2015    6818122.133 Navy
5/1/2015    7496166.93  Navy
6/1/2015    8110138.619 Navy
7/1/2015    6613409.673 Navy
8/1/2015    7700758.114 Navy
9/1/2015    8873506.303 Navy
10/1/2015   8607743.379 Navy
11/1/2015   8402456.283 Navy
12/1/2015   9140438.689 Navy
1/1/2016    8275840.634 Navy
2/1/2016    7395649.898 Navy
3/1/2016    7866524.705 Navy
4/1/2016    8085877.718 Navy
5/1/2016    9916552.566 Navy
6/1/2016    10679960.28 Navy
7/1/2016    9633510.896 Navy
8/1/2016    9676609.089 Navy
7/1/2013    307.5433145 Purple
8/1/2013    278.1919963 Purple
9/1/2013    287.8129872 Purple
10/1/2013   398.9677103 Purple
11/1/2013   519.0542504 Purple
12/1/2013   635.7302839 Purple
1/1/2014    476.532828  Purple
2/1/2014    235.580273  Purple
3/1/2014    263.450333  Purple
4/1/2014    305.085377  Purple
5/1/2014    524.16711   Purple
6/1/2014    810.060485  Purple
7/1/2014    1010.30702  Purple
8/1/2014    1129.007214 Purple
9/1/2014    1255.477696 Purple
10/1/2014   2.923276    Purple
11/1/2014   0.008834    Purple
12/1/2014   0.004957    Purple
1/1/2015    0.000673    Purple
2/1/2015    0.000973    Purple
3/1/2015    0.001761    Purple
4/1/2015    0   Purple
5/1/2015    0   Purple
6/1/2015    0.000257    Purple
7/1/2015    0.001083    Purple
8/1/2015    0.000198    Purple
9/1/2015    0   Purple
10/1/2015   0.001564    Purple
11/1/2015   0.004523    Purple
12/1/2015   0.0086669   Purple
1/1/2016    0.0025812   Purple
2/1/2016    0.0291021   Purple
3/1/2016    0.0047537   Purple
7/1/2013    0   Violet
11/1/2013   39981.47669 Pink
12/1/2013   292326.5036 Pink
1/1/2014    404725.4259 Pink
2/1/2014    425130.3693 Pink
3/1/2014    614204.0834 Pink
4/1/2014    625968.1274 Pink
5/1/2014    831838.5996 Pink
6/1/2014    1078311.547 Pink
7/1/2014    1180858.811 Pink
8/1/2014    1559672.695 Pink
9/1/2014    1665072.057 Pink
10/1/2014   2221061.833 Pink
11/1/2014   2421959.818 Pink
12/1/2014   2361507.542 Pink
1/1/2015    3438545.036 Pink
2/1/2015    4781433.951 Pink
3/1/2015    5580747.858 Pink
4/1/2015    6009637.904 Pink
5/1/2015    6371627.215 Pink
6/1/2015    8011311.62  Pink
7/1/2015    8377299.761 Pink
8/1/2015    7955153.098 Pink
9/1/2015    8433538.874 Pink
10/1/2015   8949395.599 Pink
11/1/2015   9243816.7   Pink
12/1/2015   10195777.34 Pink
1/1/2016    8187700.993 Pink
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3/1/2016    9638219.75  Pink
4/1/2016    8915953.669 Pink
5/1/2016    10642506.11 Pink
6/1/2016    10080321.64 Pink
7/1/2016    9666473.977 Pink
8/1/2016    9213704.343 Pink
9/1/2014    0   Brown
10/1/2014   1475.734616 Brown
11/1/2014   10034.69818 Brown
12/1/2014   26777.75776 Brown
1/1/2015    20410.24773 Brown
2/1/2015    9221.681913 Brown
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4/1/2015    0   Brown
5/1/2015    0   Brown
6/1/2015    5423.614942 Brown
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3/1/2016    6250.045823 Seashell
4/1/2016    4286.18379  Seashell
5/1/2016    4479.507199 Seashell
6/1/2016    24.9639029  Seashell
7/1/2016    0.0166208   Seashell
8/1/2016    0.010681    Seashell
9/1/2014    0.124513    Vanilla
10/1/2014   9386.679222 Vanilla
11/1/2014   62678.75641 Vanilla
12/1/2014   142998.4728 Vanilla
1/1/2015    88825.31542 Vanilla
2/1/2015    63402.49197 Vanilla
3/1/2015    119038.8152 Vanilla
4/1/2015    79002.37486 Vanilla
5/1/2015    71813.21074 Vanilla
6/1/2015    73068.08446 Vanilla
7/1/2015    58905.05844 Vanilla
8/1/2015    92645.82262 Vanilla
9/1/2015    220728.7663 Vanilla
10/1/2015   180677.913  Vanilla
11/1/2015   255986.6834 Vanilla
12/1/2015   282965.9907 Vanilla
1/1/2016    178225.1344 Vanilla
2/1/2016    176192.8082 Vanilla
3/1/2016    157988.8095 Vanilla
4/1/2016    154261.6344 Vanilla
5/1/2016    382507.0115 Vanilla
6/1/2016    512505.9376 Vanilla
7/1/2016    436928.8583 Vanilla
8/1/2016    478834.7415 Vanilla
9/1/2014    0   Taupe
10/1/2014   0   Taupe
11/1/2014   0   Taupe
12/1/2014   0   Taupe
1/1/2015    0   Taupe
2/1/2015    0   Taupe
3/1/2015    0   Taupe
4/1/2015    0   Taupe
5/1/2015    0   Taupe
6/1/2015    0   Taupe
7/1/2015    0   Taupe
8/1/2015    0   Taupe
9/1/2015    0   Taupe
10/1/2015   0   Taupe
11/1/2015   769.552092  Taupe
12/1/2015   777.2842088 Taupe
1/1/2016    471.9138592 Taupe
2/1/2016    182.6314588 Taupe
3/1/2016    427.5499355 Taupe
4/1/2016    376.1232696 Taupe
5/1/2016    457.9525202 Taupe
6/1/2016    557.8859334 Taupe
7/1/2016    794.7244974 Taupe
8/1/2016    741.0160445 Taupe
7/1/2013    165887.3494 Silver
8/1/2013    182241.6242 Silver
9/1/2013    171394.3484 Silver
10/1/2013   213335.5572 Silver
11/1/2013   227834.7215 Silver
12/1/2013   293496.5852 Silver
1/1/2014    134654.95   Silver
2/1/2014    115044.6029 Silver
3/1/2014    183967.1646 Silver
4/1/2014    184941.7302 Silver
5/1/2014    204545.9821 Silver
6/1/2014    215482.2549 Silver
7/1/2014    173641.8665 Silver
8/1/2014    181926.7956 Silver
9/1/2014    164437.0225 Silver
10/1/2014   215872.1443 Silver
11/1/2014   238221.9449 Silver
12/1/2014   266033.0641 Silver
1/1/2015    144658.1936 Silver
2/1/2015    172184.7977 Silver
3/1/2015    278659.7936 Silver
4/1/2015    225761.0271 Silver
5/1/2015    265556.131  Silver
6/1/2015    269989.4074 Silver
7/1/2015    180198.494  Silver
8/1/2015    219580.0754 Silver
9/1/2015    232183.1621 Silver
10/1/2015   231797.2037 Silver
11/1/2015   239490.8623 Silver
12/1/2015   248202.5771 Silver
1/1/2016    133143.5545 Silver
2/1/2016    127801.4308 Silver
3/1/2016    159318.4877 Silver
4/1/2016    140068.919  Silver
5/1/2016    130573.4838 Silver
6/1/2016    81448.51397 Silver
7/1/2016    134755.0469 Silver
8/1/2016    168724.2546 Silver

0 个答案:

没有答案