95%的预测间隔:
library(vars)
data(Canada)
series_mod = window(Canada, start = c(1990, 1), end = c(2000, 4))
mod = VAR(series_mod, p = 2, type = "const")
predict(mod, n.ahead = 4, ci = 0.95)
但是,如果我想获得 bootstrapped 95%的预测间隔怎么办?我该如何计算?假设预测库中的 Arima 具有与此相关的参数:
forecast(model, ..., bootstrap = T, npaths = 10000)
但是VAR模型呢?