我创建了一个模型，试图以此模型来复制由自动化引起的返厂生产现象。 1.我遇到的一个特殊问题是，公司的资本呈指数增长，这使得仿真只能在某一点崩溃，因为NetLogo无法处理如此大的数字。 2.生产地点的决定取决于可产生的家庭利润与国外利润之间的比较。根据哪个较低，这些公司应该迁移到“全球北部”或“全球南部”。目前，无论我进行参数扫描如何，它们都只会向北移动。
我在这里根本找不到我的思想错误。任何人？提前非常感谢。
breed [ firms firm ] ;; defines agentset and agents
globals [ ;; general parameters accessible by all agents from all across the world
labour-unit ;; either low-, high-skilled labour or robots
high-skilled-labour-ratio ] ;; defined through low-skilled-labour-ratio slider as the ratio of labour needs to be 1 in sum
firms-own [ ;; parameters belonging to agents only
firm-size ;; divides the firms by size according to their capital
output ;; amount of products produced (in units)
max-level-of-automation ;; maximal level of efficiency in automation for the specific product line of each firm
labour-units-at-home ;; number of workers employed at home
labour-units-abroad ;; number of workers employed abroad
level-of-automation ;; current efficiency in automation
actual-low-skilled-labour-ratio ;; defines the ratio of low-skilled in proportion to high-skilled labour and automation
actual-high-skilled-labour-ratio ;; defines the ratio of low-skilled in proportion to high-skilled labour and automation
robots ;; number of robots utilised for production
low-skilled-labour ;; number of low-skilled-workers (in number of persons) ASSUMPTION: Unlimited availability of low-skilled workers on the labour market
high-skilled-labour ;; number of high-skilled-workers (in number of persons) ASSUMPTION: Unlimited availability of high-skilled workers on the labour market
raw-material-costs ;; fix costs for raw materials
budget-for-labour-costs ;; planned budget available for paying labour wages
actual-labour-costs ;; actual budget spent on labour wages
automation-costs ;; costs for maintaining and running automated production (e.g. energy costs)
capital ;; assumed to be equal to the output (in €)
revenue ;; output multiplied by the price per product (in €)
profit-at-home ;; revenue minus R&D investment
profit-abroad ;; revenue minus R&D investment and foreign surcharges
r&d-investment ;; particular share of capital invested in R&D
foreign-surcharges ;; additional costs for firms producing abroad such as shipping costs or import tariffs
relocation-costs ;; share of profit which would be needed to relocate production
offshored? ;; true or false
reshored? ;; true or false
relocated? ;; true or false
]
to setup
clear-all ;; resets all global variables to zero
clear-all-plots ;; clears every plot in the model
setup-economy ;; create the world division in Germany and the producer countries in the global South
setup-industry ;; create the industry
reset-ticks ;; resets the tick counter to zero
end
to setup-economy ;; sets up the geography of the model
create-firms number-of-firms ;; number of firms to be defined through slider
ask patches with [ pycor > 0 ] [
set pcolor 98 ] ;; colours Germany in a shade of blue
ask patches with [ pycor = 0 ] [
set pcolor white ] ;; colours the equator white
ask patches with [ pycor < 0 ] [
set pcolor 48 ] ;; colours producing countries in the global South in a shade of yellow
end
to setup-industry ;; sets up the economy of the model
setup-firms ;; see auxiliary code below
offshoring ;; defines the amount of firms which have decided to offshore in the past
state-of-the-art ;; see auxiliary code below
costs-calculation ;; see auxiliary code below
labour-automation-ratio ;; see auxiliary code below
employment ;; see auxiliary code below
output-calculation ;; see auxiliary code below
revenue-calculation ;; see auxiliary code below
r&d-calculation ;; see auxiliary code below
profit-calculation ;; see auxiliary code below
firms-size-ratio ;; see auxiliary code below
end
to go ;; let's go...!!
tick ;; advances the tick counter by one
ask firms [
ifelse ( offshored? = false ) [
set capital capital + profit-at-home ] [ ;; sum of the capital and profit (values from the previous time period)
set capital capital + profit-abroad ] ]
technological-progress ;; see auxiliary code below
costs-calculation
labour-automation-ratio
employment
output-calculation
revenue-calculation
r&d-calculation
profit-calculation
location-decision ;; see auxiliary code below
firms-size-ratio
bankruptcy
if ticks = 500 [ stop ] ;; makes the modell run the same length each simulation
end
to-report random-between [ min-num max-num ] ;; auxiliary code
report random-float (max-num - min-num) + min-num
end
to setup-firms ;; auxiliary code: initial configuration of firms
ask firms [
set capital random 1000
set max-level-of-automation 0 + random-float 1 ;; random between >0 and <1 and will stay fix, because it is unrealistic that it'll be technologically feasible to automise production of all products equally
set level-of-automation 0 ] ;; initially all firms have a random output
end
to offshoring ;; auxiliary code: when it is less likely to automate the product line, the higher the incentive to offshore where manual labour is cheaper
ask firms [
set offshored? false ;; initially all firms report that they have not offshored
set reshored? false ;; no firm has initially reshored
set relocated? false ;; no firm has initially relocated
let offshored-firms ( min-n-of ( count firms * ( share-of-offshored-firms / 100 ) ) firms [ max-level-of-automation ] ) ;; specific share of all firms have decided to produce abroad (see: slider on interface)
ask offshored-firms [
setxy random-xcor random-between ( -10 ) -1 ;; spread randomly abroad
set offshored? true ] ]
ask firms with [ offshored? = false ] [
setxy random-xcor random-between ( 10 ) 1 ] ;; all firms at home are randomly spread across Germany
end
to state-of-the-art ;; auxiliary code: firms' state of the art of technology
ask n-of ( count firms * ( share-of-automated-firms / 100 ) ) firms [ ;; particular share of firms which already utilise automated robots
set level-of-automation random-between ( 0.01 ) max-level-of-automation ] ;; share of production tasks already automated but less than or equal to their maximum-level-of-automation
ask firms [
set color scale-color orange level-of-automation 0 1 ] ;; firms are black when they are not automated and shade into a ligther orange the more their level of automation increases
end
to technological-progress ;; auxiliary code: efficiency of automation increases proportional to R&D investment
ask firms [
ifelse ( ( level-of-automation + r&d-investment ) < max-level-of-automation ) [ ;; R&D investment cannot increase the level of automation beyond its maximum level
set level-of-automation level-of-automation + r&d-investment ] [
set level-of-automation max-level-of-automation ] ] ;; maximum of automation has been reached
ask firms [
set color scale-color orange level-of-automation 0 1 ]
end
to costs-calculation ;; auxiliary code: capital is used for production costs and the costs for labour
ask firms [
set raw-material-costs capital * ( share-of-raw-material-costs / 100 ) ;; specific share of capital (t0) which is used for raw materials (to be defined in interface)
set budget-for-labour-costs capital - raw-material-costs ] ;; specific share of capital (t0) which is used for labour
end
to-report share-of-labour-costs ;; auxiliary code: reports the share used for labour
report ceiling ( 100 - share-of-raw-material-costs )
end
to labour-automation-ratio ;; auxiliary code: labour is proportionally divided between the robots, low- and high-skilled labour defined through their ratio
ask firms [
set high-skilled-labour-ratio 1 - low-skilled-labour-ratio ;; labour ratio adds up to 1 in its sum
ifelse ( level-of-automation >= robots-kill-jobs-threshold ) [ ;; specific threshold defining the level of automation at which low-skilled labour becomes obsolete
set actual-low-skilled-labour-ratio 0
set actual-high-skilled-labour-ratio 1 - level-of-automation ] [
set actual-low-skilled-labour-ratio ( 1 - level-of-automation ) * low-skilled-labour-ratio ;; 1 labour unit is the sum of the low-, high-skilled-labour-ratio and the level-of-automation
set actual-high-skilled-labour-ratio ( 1 - level-of-automation ) * high-skilled-labour-ratio ] ]
end
to employment ;; auxiliary code: defines the type of labour units employed
ask firms [
;; the ratios determine the varying shares of the three different types of labour units
let share-of-robots budget-for-labour-costs * level-of-automation
let share-of-low-skilled-labour budget-for-labour-costs * actual-low-skilled-labour-ratio ;; defines how many workers can be employed dependening on the disposability of labour costs and the level of wages at home
let share-of-high-skilled-labour budget-for-labour-costs * actual-high-skilled-labour-ratio
;; the disposibility of labour costs and the proportional shares of labour determine the actual number of the varying types of labour units at home by costs and wages
;floor: reports the largest integer less than or equal to the number as a decimal number would not be realistic here as the unit of measurment are people
ifelse ( offshored? = false ) [
set robots floor ( share-of-robots / robot-costs )
set low-skilled-labour floor ( share-of-low-skilled-labour / wages-low-skilled-labour-at-home )
set high-skilled-labour floor ( share-of-high-skilled-labour / wages-high-skilled-labour-at-home )
set labour-units-at-home robots + low-skilled-labour + high-skilled-labour ] [
;; the disposibility of labour costs and the proportional shares of labour determine the actual number of the varying types of labour units abroad by costs and wages
set robots floor ( share-of-robots / robot-costs )
set low-skilled-labour floor ( share-of-low-skilled-labour / wages-low-skilled-labour-abroad )
set high-skilled-labour floor ( share-of-high-skilled-labour / wages-high-skilled-labour-abroad )
set labour-units-abroad robots + low-skilled-labour + high-skilled-labour ]
;; as no decimal number can be used to calculate the number of labour units the planned budget for labour costs and its actual amount differ
ifelse ( offshored? = false ) [
set actual-labour-costs (
robots * robot-costs ) + (
low-skilled-labour * wages-low-skilled-labour-at-home ) + (
high-skilled-labour * wages-high-skilled-labour-at-home ) ] [
set actual-labour-costs (
robots * robot-costs ) + (
low-skilled-labour * wages-low-skilled-labour-abroad ) + (
high-skilled-labour * wages-high-skilled-labour-abroad ) ] ]
end
to output-calculation ;; auxiliary code: each labour unit achieves to produce a specific amount of output which is defined through their productivity
ask firms [
set output ( ( low-skilled-labour + high-skilled-labour ) * labour-productivity ) + ( ;; amount of products produced per manual labour unit employed
robots * robot-productivity ) ] ;; amount of products produced per robot utilised
end
to revenue-calculation ;; auxiliary code: it is assumed that all output is sold to the defined sales price of the product
ask firms [
set revenue output * sales-price-per-product ]
end
to r&d-calculation ;; auxiliary code: share of revenue which is used for R&D investment
ask firms [
set r&d-investment revenue * ( share-for-r&d-investment / 100 )
if level-of-automation = max-level-of-automation [
set r&d-investment 0 ] ]
end
to profit-calculation ;; auxiliary code: the profit calculation for the firms which produce at home and abroad differs due to additional costs for foreign surcharges
ask firms [
set foreign-surcharges revenue * ( share-for-foreign-surcharges / 100 )
set profit-at-home revenue - raw-material-costs - actual-labour-costs - r&d-investment
set profit-abroad revenue - raw-material-costs - actual-labour-costs - r&d-investment - foreign-surcharges ]
end
to location-decision ;; auxiliary code: if the profit of a firm is smaller even after substracting relocation costs of its profit if it would relocate, than the relocation decision is: yes!
ask firms with [ offshored? = false ] [
set relocation-costs ( share-for-relocation-costs / 100 ) * profit-at-home ;; share of profit which would be needed to relocate production
if ( profit-at-home < ( profit-abroad - relocation-costs ) ) [
move-to one-of patches with [ pcolor = 48 and not any? turtles-here ]
set offshored? true
set reshored? false
set relocated? true ] ]
ask firms with [ offshored? = true ] [
set relocation-costs ( share-for-relocation-costs / 100 ) * profit-abroad
if ( profit-abroad < ( profit-at-home - relocation-costs ) ) [
move-to one-of patches with [ pcolor = 98 and not any? turtles-here ]
set offshored? false
set reshored? true
set relocated? true ] ]
end